by Ergin Hava | Today's Zaman
It would be
a big surprise if Turkey experienced a significant turnaround in shale gas
production, similar to that in the US, in the short term, the International
Energy Agency's (IEA) chief economist said at a conference on Friday in
İstanbul, adding that it is too early to say whether shale gas production will
be financially viable for the country.
Speaking on the sidelines of the 19th Energy and
Environment Fair and Conference (ICCI), Fatih Birol said Turkey has “golden
opportunities to be a crucial player in global energy markets within the next
five years.”
“The issue of shale gas production is very new in
Turkey. There are serious studies in this regard; however, we have not yet
learned whether this type of unconventional energy will be competitive enough
in Turkey,” Birol explained. The IEA official added that despite early
feasibility studies, it is not still clear if the cost of shale gas extraction
will be cheaper when compared to simply importing natural gas from suppliers in
the region. “We would welcome a US-like shale gas revolution in Turkey in the
short term; this, however, would be a big surprise for us,” he added.
Excitement over the prospect of trillions of cubic
meters of shale gas in Turkey has kept the country's agenda busy in recent
years as these estimates mean that Turkey, which is almost completely dependent
on foreign countries for fuel resources, could finally be energy independent.
However, observers warned that this field of the energy sector is still in its
infancy in Turkey and that it is impossible to get a truly accurate picture of
the country's shale reserves at this point. Royal Dutch Shell and US company
TransAtlantic Petroleum Ltd. are among the leading firms that have already
commenced studies for shale gas extraction in eastern and western Turkey,
respectively.
On the one side, going by the shale gas production
boom, many market experts believe the US is likely to replace Russia as the
world's number one gas producer. Others, like the Canada-based Centre for
Research on Globalization (CRG), think the shale gas sector in the US is “a
gigantic hyped confidence bubble that is already beginning to deflate.”
