by
Alakbar Raufoglu and Andy Dabilis | Southeast European Times
Turkish
Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said recently the Israeli apology could open the
way for energy co-operation between the two countries.
The
prospect of normalisation between Israel and Turkey following last month's
apology has opened the questions about the relationship between Israel, Greece
and Cyprus.
The
fallout between Israel and Turkey over the past four years pushed Israel for
strategic and economic reasons to cozy up to Greece and Cyprus, Turkey's
historic rivals in the Eastern Mediterranean.
"The
relations that were built in the last four years with Greece and Cyprus were to
a great extent a result of the severe crisis with Turkey," Alon Liel, the
former Israeli ambassador to Turkey, told SETimes.
Some
analysts say this geopolitical and economic calculation could change following
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's apology to Turkey for the 2010 raid
on the Turkish aid ship, the Mavi Marmara, as it tried to breach an Israeli
blockade of Gaza, resulting in the death of nine Turkish activists.
Mavi
Marmara led to a severing of relations between once close regional powers. The
apology opened the way to a still nascent rapprochement.
The
prospect of Turkey and Israel rekindling their once close relationship has many
observers looking to the large but disputed gas deposits in the Eastern
Mediterranean that could transform the geopolitical future of the region.
He
added Israel's energy plans in the Eastern Mediterranean "would only be
reasonable if Turkey was involved."
Cyprus
and Israel have been mulling building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in
Cyprus combining both Israeli and Cypriot gas finds in the Eastern
Mediterranean. Amid the speculation over bringing Israeli gas to European
markets -- whether through Turkey or Cyprus -- there is the question of how
much Israel would decide to export. Hawks in Israel are pushing to keep the gas
for domestic consumption to bolster energy security and independence for
decades.
Without
Israeli investment and gas supplies some energy analysts question whether such
a 10 billion euro price tag LNG plant in Cyprus would be economically viable.
The cheapest and shortest option to bring Israeli and Cypriot gas to European
markets would be through Turkey via a pipeline.
George
Leventis, director of the International Security Forum in Nicosia said he
thinks Greece and Cyprus will lose leverage now.
"The
observation that a revamped alliance between Israel and Turkey will squeeze out
Cyprus and Greece is correct," he told SETimes. "If Israel manages to
sell its gas -- which already is pumping out of the Tamar gas field -- via
Turkey then Cyprus [and Greece] stand alone."
"Israel
is considering all possible options in geopolitical-geostrategic terms. If
Israel's choice is for an LNG plant it does make sense to place it in Cyprus
rather than the Israeli coast. It will be safer on Cyprus. But this again
presupposes that Tel Aviv will play the Cyprus card against Turkey and the
current trend is to the opposite," he added.
Meanwhile,
The Cyprus Mail quoted Israeli Deputy Ambassador Shani Cooper as saying that
the "the normalisation of relations between Turkey and Israel was an
important bilateral step but it will not affect any multilateral, trilateral or
bilateral relations between Israel and other countries. Israel will maintain
its close relations with Cyprus, and continue strengthening them as we have
done the last few years."
Similarly,
Spiros Lambridis, Athens's new envoy to Israel, said that "regardless of
what Israel does with Turkey, we have a strategic relationship that is
autonomous and has nothing to do with Turkey," the Jerusalem Post
reported.
Lambridis
said the new Israeli-Turkish rapprochement could help regional stability and
lessen tensions in the area between Southeast Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
"The more tranquility in the region, the better," he said.
Whatever
Israel decides, some observers see the gas row as an opportunity to settle the
long standing dispute between the Turkish and Greek Cypriots on the island. The
Israel-Turkey rapprochement came only three days before Cyprus was forced to
restructure its banking sector to avoid default and an exit from the Eurozone
in exchange for a 10 billion euro IMF and European bailout.
Without
a strong banking system to prop up the economy, cash-strapped Cyprus now needs
to extract natural gas more than ever.
Cyprus
seems determined to push ahead on its own if necessary. Foreign Minister
Koannis Kasoulides said the island’s natural gas deposits are enough to warrant
the construction of LNG plant to export excess supply, regardless of whether
Israel decides to be a partner in the project. He added that Israel's apology
to Turkey "doesn't mean Israel is obliged to follow what Turkey is
dictating in this region."
An
Israeli or Cypriot move would run up against Turkey, which demands the consent
of Turkish Cypriots as "co-owners of the island" in the extraction of
gas. Turkey has already sent its navy to the region to protect Turkish Cypriot
interests and said recently energy companies doing business with Cyprus would
be barred from current and future energy projects in Turkey.
Turkey
would like a negotiated settlement on the island, but it ratcheted up pressure
recently by saying for the first time it would push for a two-state solution on
the island if no deal on joint exploration could be reached with the Greek half
of the island.
Analysts
like Ali Balci from the Sakarya University in Turkey argue all sides need to
realise that the transfer of energy to the European market requires
co-operation among Cyprus, Greece, Israel and Turkey.
"Because
of the economic crisis, Cyprus is in need to use these energy fields as soon as
possible. This is another incentive to construct peaceful relations among
sides. Politics is not always zero-sum," he told SETimes.
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