by Denise Natali | Al-Monitor
The proposed energy framework between
Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has raised hopes for
independent Kurdish oil exports and a viable way to pay international oil
companies (IOCs) in the Kurdistan Region. Some think the framework could
eventually give the Kurds an alternative revenue source that replaces Ankara
for Baghdad as the region’s financier. Yet, while encouraging Kurdish energy
development, Turkey still has made no clear commitment to an independent
pipeline that would circumvent Iraqi state sovereignty. This is because
Ankara’s endgame is not only securing Kurdish crude, but maximizing Turkish
commercial interests in Iraq. Doing so will likely entail negotiations with
Baghdad that include Erbil, but which prioritize Iraq’s territorial integrity,
secure Ankara’s interests and seek concessions from the Kurds.
Turkey’s quest for Kurdish crude is not
surprising, given its geographical proximity to the region, domestic energy
needs and growing influence over the KRG. Ankara is not only well-positioned to
continue "bartering" operations with Erbil — exchanging trucked,
Kurdish hydrocarbons for diesel products — but to further entrench its energy
interests by establishing a state-affiliated company that would invest in
Kurdish oil fields. This tactical move would allow Ankara to circumvent
Baghdad’s blacklist of companies without jeopardizing its state-led (TPAO)
hydrocarbons investments in southern Iraq.
Still, beyond creative media reporting
and sporadic, inflammatory remarks by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, Turkey has taken no real steps to promote viable, independent Kurdish
exports that would jeopardize Turkish investments in the rest of Iraq. Erdogan
may have stated the KRG’s rights to sign its own energy deals within the
framework of the Iraqi constitution, but he has affirmed that Turkey’s
interests were to increase volumes of the existing pipeline. To ease concerns
by Iraqis and international partners, Turkish Minister of Energy Taner Yildiz
further indicated that Turkey remains committed to southern Iraq. He also
suggested ways that Turkey could develop a joint project with his “Iraqi
brethren,” including a third pipeline that would export southern Iraqi crude to
Turkey.