by Karen Ayat | Natural Gas
Europe
Political tensions between Israel
and Turkey
Turkey is energy
poor. The country imports the vast majority of its oil, gas and hard coal
supplies to meet domestic demand. Turkey imports 58 percent of its gas from Russia, 19 percent
from Iran, 9 percent from Algeria, 9 percent
from Azerbaijan and 3
percent from Nigeria.
Turkey paid $60.1 billion for
energy last year with an 11 percent increase from a year earlier. Turkey’s
energy dependency is expected to double in the next decade due to a massive
rise of energy consumption, according to a recent report by the US Energy Information
Administration(EIA). Electricity
needs in particular are expected to grow twice as fast as its overall energy
use.
In a recent announcement, Energy
Minister Taner Yıldız said that indications of possible shale gas resources had
been found in the Central Anatolian provinces of Ankara, Konya and Kırşehir.
The shale gas reserve is estimated at 1.8 trillion cubic meters and could
satisfy 40 years of natural gas consumption with an annual production of 45
billion cubic meters. Turkey is currently employing its efforts to determine
the accuracy of its shale gas potential.
Whether Turkey is blessed with
shale gas remains uncertain. What is certain, is that it is blessed with
centrality. It connects an energy-rich East to an energy-hungry West. Turkey
could therefore play a paramount role in facilitating the transport of Israeli
gas to a Europe largely dominated by Russian gas. Israel and Turkey are
flirting with the idea of building a gas pipeline from Israel’s Leviathan Basin directly to Turkey to supply
European markets. However, a few obstacles might stand in the way.
Relations between the two
countries have deteriorated since May 2010 when nine Turks were killed by
Israeli forces when they boarded the Turkish Mavi Marmara aid ship that was
attempting to break the Gaza blockade. For example, and to illustrate the tension
between the two countries, the Turkish prime minister dramatically walked out
of the Davos
Economic Forumin January 2013 this year because the Israeli
president was present. A UN report condemning the deaths but justifying
Israel's blockade provoked Ankara to reduce even further its diplomatic
relations with Tel-Aviv. The clash between the two countries was additionally
amplified when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently called
Zionism a ‘crime against humanity’.
The new Israeli government that
will be formed by Benjamin Netanyahu in the coming days will deliberate on
crucial points regarding Israel’s new role as a regional energy power. One of
the major questions that will be examined is how the Israeli gas will be
exported. The possibility of establishing a closer relationship with Turkey
could potentially be motivated by the two countries’mutual economic interest.
However, the history of tensed Turkish-Cypriot relationship could be a
deterrent to the fruition of the pipeline project given that such a pipeline
will have to pass under Cypriot waters.
A divided Cyprus
Cyprus is divided between its
northern part inhabited by Turkish Cypriots since 1974 and the eastern part
inhabited by Greek Cypriots. The division of Cyprus is now as flagrant as ever
since the discovery of hydrocarbon resources in its waters, creating tension
between the Turks and the Greeks. The Turkish Republic of Cyprus has formulated
its opposition to any exploration of oil and gas before the unity the Island is
achieved. To the start of the drilling process by Greek southern Cyprus, Turkey
reacted aggressively by threatening to send war ships to the waters of the
northern half. Israel's energy cooperation with Cyprus could stand in the way
of a proposed Israel-Turkey natural gas pipeline.
Lebanon and Syria in the Way
Another obstacle to an
Israeli-Turkish pipeline would be the fact that Lebanon and Syria’s economic
waters lie between Israel and Turkey.
Pressure from Russia
An Israeli-Turkish pipeline would
diversify the gas portfolio of Russia-dependent Europe and Turkey. Therefore,
it is very likely to receive a strong opposition from Russia and state-owned
Russian energy company Gazprom.
Solution?
A pipeline to Greece, although longer, costlier and riskier,
seems to be one of the solutions. Another possible solution would be exporting
liquefied natural gas (LNG) to markets where prices are high. It would be an
ideal scenario for Israel if it weren’t for the huge investments required.
Cyprus lacks the cash to go for the LNG option. Israel lacks the space. A
floating LNG vessel has been considered but the technology is new and untested.
Given the interests at stake, improved diplomatic relations between Israel and
Turkey might deserve the two countries efforts.
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